an unprecedented second round to transform the test

The first round of regional elections, Sunday, June 20, was marked by an unprecedented level of abstention (66.7%). A first key is to know if this second round will mobilize more voters than the first. It also revealed a fragmented political landscape. This fragmentation will be found in the second round, Sunday June 27, also unprecedented in many respects.

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First, by the number of lists present and the scenarios it offers. There will be a single duel in the second round in metropolitan France, in Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur (PACA), and three in the overseas territories, in Guadeloupe, Reunion Island and Guyana. It offers three triangular sections, in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, in Hauts-de-France and in Occitanie. No less than eight quadrangular will take place, in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, in the Center-Val de Loire, the Grand-Est, in Ile-de-France, in Normandy, in the Pays de la Loire as well as in Corsica and In Martinique. Finally, it will give rise, and this is a first since the introduction of the proportional two-round ballot in 2004, two quinquangulars, in Brittany and New Aquitaine. That is, in total, 59 lists in the running when there were 46 in the second round in 2015. This one then saw six duels, ten triangular and only one quadrangular, in Corsica, where the qualification threshold for the second turn is 7%, not 10% as in other regional or territorial elections.

LRM goes it alone

These multiple configurations are the result of several factors. First of all, the union in the second round between the left and the ecologists was not general: Brittany and New Aquitaine are exceptions to the rule. The National Rally (RN) will be present in the second round in all metropolitan regions, except Corsica. The presidential majority lists, for their part, had to revise their claims downwards after the failure of the first round. They could only be maintained in eight metropolitan regions, with no hope of conquering any, and in Guadeloupe, where the outgoing president, Ary Chalus (La République en Marche, LRM) is in a very favorable position to win. In no region, however, has it found potential allies to forge alliances. She finds herself forced to go it alone, in a weak position.

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As a rule, the first round turned out to be favorable to the incumbent presidents. All turned in the lead, with the exception of Renaud Muselier (Les Républicains, LR) in PACA, ahead of the RN list led by ex-LR Thierry Mariani. The spotlight will be on this region, a key issue for the president of the far-right party, Marine Le Pen, if she wants to blur her setback in the first round, far from the scores that the polls promised her. From the first round, Mr. Muselier, braving the wrath of his party, had included on his list representatives of the presidential majority. The left-wing list led by Jean-Laurent Félizia, who qualified for the second round, finally withdrew.

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