António Costa leaves with an advantage over Rui Rio for the January 30 legislatives. According to an Aximage poll for the DN, JN and TSF, the Portuguese consider that the socialist is more competent, supportive and influential. And that will make, therefore, a better prime minister. But there are also positive signs for the Social Democrat: he gets, for the first time, a positive assessment and is considered the most honest.
With a month and a half before the elections, it is clear who is leading the race to become prime minister: António Costa surpasses Rui Rio in a series of parameters in which the two were placed face to face. And in some cases it leaves the rival far away.
Another sign of the socialist’s favoritism is given by the regular assessment of politicians. After the dismal results in November (a reflection of the lead in the Budget, the dissolution of Parliament and the anticipation of elections), Costa returns, in December, to a positive balance (19 percentage points). And he remains the most popular party leader.
The direct push
It is true that Rui Rio continues further behind. But you also have reasons to smile. Clearly catapulted by the victory on the straights (which many considered unlikely), the PSD leader achieves for the first time in this series of Aximage barometers, started in July 2020, a positive balance (eight points) in the assessment of the Portuguese. In other words, between November and December there is a huge jump of 30 points in popularity (it had 22 negative points).
The question remains as to whether he will be able to add enough support in the month and a half that are left for the definitive decision-taking of the ballot boxes. It is certain that it has the best of stages this weekend, at the congress that starts today in Santa Maria da Feira, to try to ensure that the tide continues to rise.
For the time being, and when the Portuguese are confronted with a series of attributes and asked to “hand him over” to one of the two main candidates for prime minister, António Costa has the advantage. From the outset in the competence chapter (56%), in which he gets more than double the “votes” of Rui Rio (25%).
more supportive coast
When trying to measure which of them is more supportive (or closer to the people), the socialist continues to prevail (44%), although the distance to the social democrat (20%) is a little smaller. But it is important to highlight that more than a third of those questioned refuse to give the title of solidarity politician to any of them.
When it comes to influence, the PS leader (and current prime minister) naturally achieves a greater advantage (69%) over his rival (10%), who does not hold public office. Even PSD voters (58%) hand this medal to their socialist rival.
Honesty of Rio
There is only one attribute – honesty – in which Rio (25%) manages to beat Costa (24%), even if only by a meager percentage point. But here too, the refusal of more than half of respondents (51%) to give an opinion stands out. It is not a specific problem for the two leaders, the same happened when Aximage did this test with other candidates for other elections. Definitely, the Portuguese resist associating honesty with politicians.
Taking into account the assessment of the leaders and the different attributes, it is not surprising that António Costa is the candidate most of the Portuguese trust most for prime minister (he gets 46%, against 21% for the Social Democrat) and, finally, that be seen as a better prime minister (gets 51% against 25% for Rui Rio).
SURVEY DATA SHEET
The survey was carried out by Aximage for the DN, TSF and JN, with the aim of evaluating the opinion of the Portuguese on political news. The fieldwork took place between the 9th and 13th of December 2021 and 810 interviews were collected among people over 18 years old residing in Portugal. A quota sampling was performed, obtained through a matrix crossing sex, age and region (NUTSII), from the known universe, rebalanced by gender, group age and education. For a probability sample of 810 interviews, the maximum standard deviation of a proportion is 0.017 (ie, an “error margin” – at 95% – of 3.44%).
Responsibility for the study: Aximage Comunicaço e Imagem, Lda., under the technical direction of Ana Carla Basílio.
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