Posted on Sep 30, 2021 at 6:00 PMUpdated Sep 30, 2021, 6:33 PM
The presidential election is not in the minds: 52% of the French are “not yet interested”. And this is to say, above all, that the landscape is as fluid as it is uncertain, with a greater fluidity of electorates than in the past. But six months before the ballot, the photograph of public opinion in the first edition of the PrésiTrack OpinionWay barometer for “Les Echos”, Radio Classique and CNews is clearly to the advantage of Emmanuel Macron.
According to the assumptions on the right, the head of state is credited with 24 to 28% of the voting intentions. And, in any case, in a strong position. More than one in three voters (35%) and even almost all of those who say they are sympathizers of En Marche (93%) think that he will win the race in 2022, against barely 13% for Marine Le Pen and 11% for Xavier Bertrand. “Emmanuel Macron benefits from the classic posture of the president quite far from the election: he appears as a pole of stability. He is also the least exposed to competition and to the risk of a new candidacy which could handicap him, ”analyzes Bruno Jeanbart, the vice-president of OpinionWay.
If the second round took place this Sunday, the head of state would beat the candidate of the National Rally, by 58% of the votes against 42%. A still comfortable advance, but less than in 2017 (66% against 34%). Emmanuel Macron benefits from the very poor patch that Marine Le Pen is going through, weakened by her scathing setback to the regional and by the threat of a candidacy from Eric Zemmour, but also from the fact that she remains the best placed to qualify. Barely 58% of her 2017 voters believe she can win.
It is to her that the polemicist, given at 10%, today takes the most votes. If he went down into the arena, the member for Pas-de-Calais would get 20% of the votes cast, and Xavier Bertrand, 15%. Without him, it would be 25%, the boss of Hauts-de-France not exceeding 16%. The latter does not do much better than Valérie Pécresse, at 15% if she wore the colors of the right today, when Michel Barnier, who suffers from a lack of notoriety, is left behind, with 9%.
“The surprise is that Eric Zemmour picks very little, for the moment, in the current right-wing electorate,” said Bruno Jeanbart. This does not prevent him from seducing 11% of the voters of François Fillon in the presidential election of 2017. The former columnist also achieves a low score in the popular categories: 7% against 40% for the figurehead of the RN. “It is a huge handicap”, notes the vice-president of OpinionWay, according to which the French who are not interested today in 2022 (among which 6 workers and employees in 10) “will actually vote” .
The issue of purchasing power
While the candidates essentially cross swords on immigration, it is the purchasing power which is at the top of the concerns of the French. This theme is placed “among the issues that will count the most” by 48% of the people questioned (who could name several). Just ahead of security (46%) and social protection (43%). “Economic themes are coming back to the fore. They are often the great marker of the presidential election but, in 2017, it was employment “, which is only in seventh place (at 33%), notes Bruno Jeanbart, seeing” a rupture “.
If security is acclaimed on the right and in the RN, concerns about purchasing power, driven by the rise in energy prices, are stronger in the electorate of the left. Without profiting from the left on the electoral plan, it is so fragmented and weak: Jean-Luc Mélenchon and Yannick Jadot are both credited with 7 to 8% of the votes, Anne Hidalgo from 6 to 7%, Arnaud Montebourg and Fabien Roussel with 3% each. This scattering is, for Emmanuel Macron, another advantage.
Survey carried out from September 22 to 23, 2021, with a sample of 980 people registered on the electoral rolls, quota method. Margin of uncertainty between 1.4 and 2.7 points.