Regional diplomatic turmoil around Tunisia

The coup by Tunisian President Kaïs Saïed, who assumed full powers on July 25 and renewed on August 23, sine die, this exceptional regime, reshuffles the maps of regional geopolitics. The new political sequence in Tunisia, of which the main victim is Ennahda, a formation resulting from the Islamist matrix, is obviously very good news for the axis made up of Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia engaged in a bitter struggle against the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood, while seeking to undermine any experiment with a democratic model likely to spill oil. Officials and media in these states warmly welcomed the “Exceptional measures” de Kaïs Saïed and the visits of high-ranking diplomats have followed one another in Tunis for a month, the most recent being that, on August 22, of the Saudi Minister for African Affairs.

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On the other hand, the Turkey-Qatar axis, to which Ennahda was close, is the big loser of this diplomatic reconfiguration around Tunisia. Algeria, for its part, observes “With a lot of attention, and even with concern” – in the words of a Western diplomat – the evolution of the situation, which it would suffer the repercussions on its border in the event of instability. A sign of Algiers’ concern, the Algerian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ramtane Lamamra, made three visits to Tunis in the space of a month. Record frequency.

In the realignments underway, Egypt is at the forefront. All observers of the Tunisian diplomatic scene agree in the visit carried out from April 9 to 11 by Kaïs Saïed in Cairo, where his counterpart Abdel Fattah Al-Sissi received him with great pomp, a turning point, and probably the harbinger of the July 25 coup. The Tunisian president returned from this trip armed with new confidence. ” There was a before and after the visit to Cairo », Slips a former minister.

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Did the Egyptian marshal, who overthrew the then president, Mohamed Morsi – from the Muslim Brotherhood – in a coup in July 2013 – he gave him advice and advice? The modus operandi is incomparable in some ways – blood has not been shed in Tunis – but identical in others: the mobilization in the Tunisian streets of groups demanding the dismissal of the government of Hichem Mechichi – supported by Ennahda – in the name a relaunch of the “Revolution” like the Tamarrod movement (“rebellion” in Arabic) in Cairo.

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