Survey on the federal election: Laschet and Union are still panting after the SPD

  • fromChristian Stör


Shortly before the federal election, the picture solidified in a new survey: The SPD is ahead of the Union.

Berlin – The federal election in 2021 is just around the corner. The polls currently indicate a setback for Armin Laschet (CDU). But the union of the CDU and CSU still hopes to turn the trend around in the remaining days.

However, the polls now seem to be solidifying. Even with the current Sunday question from the polling institute YouGov, a very clear picture emerges. According to this, the SPD and its candidate for Chancellor Olaf Scholz received 25 percent of the vote and continued to claim the top position ahead of the Union, which in this survey only came to 21 percent (and thus at least one point compared to the previous week).

Poll for the federal election: Laschet and the union behind SPD and Scholz

In third place are the Greens with 14 percent (minus 1), the lowest value that the party with its candidate for Chancellor Annalena Baerbock has achieved so far in this election campaign. The AfD ranks behind with 12 percent (plus 1). The FDP comes to 11 percent and thus increases by 1 point. On the other hand, the left has lost something compared to the previous week and ends up at 7 percent. The free voters reach 2 percent. After all, 7 percent of those eligible to vote want to vote for other parties. The polls published this week by the Forsa and Insa institutes revealed a similar picture.

In terms of competence, the SPD is currently scoring the most: 51 percent of all respondents consider the Social Democrats to be competent, 44 percent say this about the CDU / CSU, 36 percent about the FDP and 32 percent about the Greens.

SPD CDU / CSU Green AfD FDP left FW Others
25 % 21 % 14 % 12 % 11 % 7 % 2 % 7 %

Bundestag election: the majority of those eligible to vote have already been decided

Most of the voters have already decided on a party. When asked “Have you already made a final decision on how you will vote in the federal election?”, 74 percent of those questioned answered with “Yes, I have already made a final decision”. 15 percent of the respondents said they only wanted to make a final decision later. 9 percent did not provide any information, 1 percent chose the “don’t know” option.

This means that the parties only have a limited amount of leeway to change the mood in the last few meters. But it is also clear that election polls are always fraught with uncertainty. Among other things, declining party ties and increasingly short-term voting decisions make it more difficult for the opinion polls to weigh them. In principle, surveys only reflect the opinion at the time of the survey. (cs / dpa)

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Note: For the “Sunday question” YouGov evaluated the answers of 2,647 people between September 16 and 22. The statistical margin of error is between 1.7 percentage points (for the SPD) and 1.0 percentage points (for the left). – For the question “Have you already made a final decision on how you will vote in the Bundestag election?” A total of 2364 responses were evaluated.